ON POLITICS AND THE ECONOMY

B&B:

ON POLITICS (in which I am expert)

1. KEY THEMES OF THIS ELECTION: The appalling absence of ultimate choice. Irrespective of political self-identification (i.e. repub, dem. ib. consv, et.al.), audience recognizes and loathes the idea that no matter who wins, the next President will be supportive of higher taxes (see: Dems + McCain opposition to Bush tax cuts) illegal immigration/no borders (see: Dems + McCain-Kennedy), political free speech (see: Dems + McCain-Feingold), constitutionally-oriented federal judges (see: Dems + McCain Gang of 12), Global Warming Hysteric (see: Dems + McCain campaign) etc. etc. The next President, no matter whom, will be of fundamentally liberal orientation according to majority of my audience - and they resent it.

2. THE AFFECT OF A CLOSE RACE ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: As of May 1, Ralph Nader - whom everybody dismissed, but on my show we recognized as prospectively lethal - is polling at 5%!! That is likely a wider margin than the ultimate general election margin of victory/defeat. Political ignoramus believe Nader's impact is "unpredictable" or "hurts both major candidates". Demonstrable Twaddle. 99% of Nader's vote would otherwise go Dem. Thus, so long as Nader support runs at even 1%, he can be huge (i.e. decisive, Dem-killer) factor. Run Ralphie! Run!!

3. WHO WILL WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION??? I predicted in national print, radio, TV in 1998 and with somewhat obnoxious regularity ever since HRC's exact route/timing/location of her Pres ambitions. I was right in 1998 and since - but now, owing to her deeply flawed campaign and understandable negatives, I place her nomination prospects at 1-10. Which is a pity for Dems, because she could beat McCain. Obama, who CANNOT BE ELECTED will win Dem nomination and lose to McCain. And there will be riots.

4. WILL CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS WARM UP TO SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN? No.

5. WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER AND WHY? Contrary to conventional wisdom (always conventional, rarely wise) America IS prepared to elect an African-American (see: Condi Rice, Colin Powell, et. al.) but Not a Leftist African American, period. The combination of (1) backlash by Dems who refuse to vote if their candidate loses nomination, hence Dem under-voting (2) Dems who vote for McCain (3) underperformance (vis population % of eligible voters) by African-Americans (4) underperformance of young 'voters' (5) attraction by McCain of exceptional numbers of Independents and Dems (5) Ralph Nader..will elect John McCain.

ON THE ECONOMY (in which I am, decidedly, Not an expert)

1. HOW DO YOU COPE WITH RISING EVERYDAY COSTS? Vote against all Democrats.

2. ADVICE FOR SHORT TERM HOME BUYERS OR HOME SELLERS: Prayer.

3. HOW COULD A BANKING INDUSTRY COLLAPSE AFFECT WORKING PEOPLE? I recall in the 1980s first seeing/hearing "we are an equal-opportunity lender". I and many of us, instantly recognized there has never been, and is not, and can never be, any such thing. Some people are qualified buyers (i.e. they can pay loan back), some less so - and the difference is discernable, even obvious. "Equal opportunity lender" meant/means "we will substitute political judgement for fiscal judgment and lend lots of money to people we know in advance cannot possibly re-pay it...and pass the burden onto the gov't (i.e. all the other people who are re-paying their own loans). The banking/mortgage collapse is not complicated it is welfare write large.

4. IS THE WORST OF ECONOMIC TIMES BEHIND US OR YET TO COME? As we are evidently unwilling to apply standards that are strictly Fiscal - as opposed to Politically Correct, "Humanitarian" - i.e. fantastic), so long as we pretend, and actually practice as policy, that "everybody" "deserves" (X) - e.g. big car(s), a bigger house than they can possibly afford, etc. - we are yet to have even a Taste of how devastating this could be.

(Other than that, I am keenly optimistic!)

Respectfully submitted this 2nd day April, 2008 A.D.

Jay Severin