B+B:
As I prepare to go to air here on Wednesday p.m., a further thought on the nature and magnitude of the keenly vexing reality Democrats immediately face:
1. THE DEM RACE IS NOW OUTSIDE THE HANDS OF VOTERS.
Because of Clinton's Texas-Ohio-Rhode Island success - again establishing presence for her - no single or group of primaries/caucuses is capable of "breaking the race open", for either candidate.
THIS MEANS THE DEM NOMINATION IS NOW VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO BE SETTLED NOT BY VOTERS, BUT IN COURT OR BY SUPER-DELEGATES.
And that is almost surely going to cause a historic and greatly problematic split in their party; it could cost them the election.
2. SUPER-DELEGATES NOW HAVE A STARK CHOICE: ATTEMPT TO SETTLE THIS RACE "FROM THE INSIDE", OR LET IS FESTER, LINGER, TWIST IN THE WIND FOR MONTHS.
Without forceful - and probably hugely unpopular - intervention from party leaders, the dem race isn't going to swerve al over the map merely until the Pennsylvania primary (7 weeks distant, April 22) - but until at least the June 7 Puerto Rico primary...and quite possibly until after the re-do of both Michigan's and Florida's primaries, which could push this up to the convention.
3. PENNSYLVANIA IS A STATE DEMOCRATS MUST WIN IN NOVEMBER - AND NOW THEY ARE GUARANTEED MONTHS OF UGLY, BLOODY CARPET-BOMBING OF BOTH DEM CANDIDATES, BY EACH OTHER.
Clinton(s) and Obama are now going to spend - what, 40 million dollars? - trashing each other to win their party's voters...but when they leave, the loser will have been savaged so badly that he/she may not be able to win Penn in November.
4. CALENDAR GUARANTEES DEMOCRAT MUTUAL ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK.
Q: What kept the dems on page 1 every day since Christmas?
A: weekly election events.
Now there is Nothing until 7 weeks from now.
Q: So, how will Clinton and Obama stay on page 1
A: The only way they can: by making, in the absence of primaries, the only kind of news
that guarantees coverage: attacking each other, leaking into the media bad rumors about each other, etc.
EVERY WEEK WITHOUT A PRIMARY THIS CAMPAIGN GOES ON WILL BE AN UGLY WEEK.
For Dems.
For us, BEAUTIFUL!
Excelsior!
JS
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
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