Sunday, June 15, 2008



The first genuinely significant - perhaps profound - signal of where this presidential election is headed since Barack Hussein Obama became the Democrat presumptive nominee is in, and it is (unfortunately) great news for liberals: a substantial portion of Hillary Clinton's base - older white women - have swung to Obama.

Because of this, the early assembly of the U.S. Electoral Map places Ohio and Pennsylvania leaning Obama. Notably, both are states (a) where Clinton beat him badly (b) that McCain cannot win without.

This is the worst possible news for McCain (not to mention Republicans). White working class voters - the crown jewel of '08 swing voter groups - abandoned Obama in the Democrat primaries, but appear here in the early moments of the two-candidate field to be gravitating toward him. He can't win without them, and neither can McCain.

Any discussion of this race begins and ends with that Electoral Map, which for one candidate will cobble together at least 270 votes. The traditional map - by which we calculated and decided the last several presidencies - favors McCain; but Demography is Destiny: if the movement to Obama of these and other of Hillary Clinton's base voters is real and continues, Obama will re-write and dominate that map, and will become President of the United States.

I wish I had better news.
Stay tuned.



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